Iranian elections will happen on June 12th. Yesterday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir-Hossein Mousavi debated.
Nazila Fathi in The Age:
With the presidential election on June 12, Mr Mousavi was on the offensive during the debate. At one point, he accused Mr Ahmadinejad of moving Iran towards “dictatorship”. At another, he said the President’s foreign policy suffered from “adventurism, illusionism, exhibitionism, extremism and superficiality”.
He also took issue with Mr Ahmadinejad’s constant questioning of the Holocaust, saying that it harmed the country’s standing in the world and undermined its dignity.
“For the past four years, you kept saying that the United States is collapsing,” Mr Mousavi said. “You have said Israel is collapsing. France is collapsing.
“Your foreign policies have been based on such illusory perceptions.”
Mr Ahmadinejad said he deserved credit for expanding Iran’s nuclear program and standing up to the West. “For 27 years, the Americans were pursuing a policy of regime change against us,” he said. “Now they are saying they are not. Whose foreign policy brought that about?”
Via Andrew Sullivan, Joe Klein at Swampland in Time:
Mousavi made the sort of points that might register with a western audience: Ahmadinejad had alienated the world with his extreme public statements, especially his denial of the holocaust. Iran had suffered as a result, in economic terms and in international repute. But Ahmadinejad made the sharper, populist–if inaccurate–appeal: Mousavi represented the Tehran establishment, which was getting rich at the expense of average Iranians. He launched a direct attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani, whom he defeated in the 2005. This sort of attack is unprecedented in Iranian politics–and it may indicate desperation on Ahmadinejad’s part. He’s been trailing in recent polls. But it also may indicate why Ahmadinejad succeeded in 2005 and has been something less than a comfortable presence for the ruling Mullahs: he presents himself as an average guy, a populist, a man of faith–and a fighter. Mousavi, by contrast, is an artist and architect who allows his wife, a prominent academic, to sit next to him at campaign rallies.
Hmmm. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? (Although there’s no evidence that Mousavi wind-surfs or speaks French.)
Brian Ulrich at The Progressive Realist:
Even with key parts of the government supporting him, Ahmadinejad has a tough road to re-election. He has to hope that the reformists stay cynical, or since that doesn’t seem to be working out, divided, and that his populist message from 2005 will resonate against someone other than the widely scorned Rafsanjani. All of that said, however, Iranian politics are notoriously difficult to predict.
I’ve been asking Iranian friends, and they offer two theories. The first, which explains everything and therefore nothing, is that it is yet another trick being played on the Iranian people. The regime wants to identify its enemies, and so Mousavi and his wife are out there luring the unsuspecting opponents into the open, the better to crush them with an iron fist.
If so, the Mousavi candidacy would be similar to that of former president Khatami, who enthused “reformers” only to abandon them when he was elected. And in that case, Mousavi could be seen as a trick not only on the Iranians, but on the Americans as well, since his election would surely be interpreted as a sign of moderation in Tehran. It would be taken as a clear sign that the Iranians are ready to deal with the West, thereby buying considerable time for the regime to pretend to negotiate with Obama and his myriad special czars and envoys. Time enough to complete the atomic project.
That’s the first theory.
The second is that Khamenei has become convinced that the internal situation is so explosive that the regime must be modified, and that Iran must also end its pariah status and achieve better relations with the West. Mousavi was in favor of such relations when he was in office. Or, to be more accurate, he and his deputies said they were (the theory was not sufficiently tested to permit a reliable evaluation) in their contacts with the West, specifically with the Reagan Administration (you can read about it in my book, Perilous Statecraft).
If so, the election of Mousavi would demonstrate that Khamenei is now prepared to ease up on the frightful massacre of Iranian dissidents, empower the women, grant greater political expression, and perhaps even to reconsider the crash program to develop atomic bombs.
Ali Alfoneh at The Enterprise Blog looks at the candidates.
I don’t know whether you have been reading the various press accounts of the election campaign in Iran. I know that the candidates’ list is fixed, but I can also see democratic spirit when it is bang in front of me. There appears to be a genuine fight for votes; and the images from the Mousavi rallies look more like Obama rallies than assemblies in a totalitarian state. Notice how young these people look, and how unafraid.
UPDATE: Kevin Sullivan argues with Klein and Sullivan (h/t: Sullivan, the Andrew kind)
UPDATE #2: Taylor Marsh
UPDATE #3: The debate:
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June 10, 2009 at 11:22 pm
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