It’s hard to tell exactly what Joe Biden was trying to say this morning on “This Week” with George Stephanopolous. But his remarks are being widely interpreted as a green light for an Israeli strike on Iran. If that isn’t the case, Biden needs to issue a strong clarification immediately. If it is, then he has just committed the worst foriegn policy blunder of the Obama administration.
I read this as Biden distancing the United States from any Israeli attack; this is to say that, if the Israelis do attack Iran, that the United States had nothing to do with it. I don’t really see it as the US giving Israel a green light; why would such a message ever been given in public? I probably wouldn’t have used the phrase “entitled” but the point seems to be to draw a distinction between Israel and the US, rather than to indicate a preferred course of action to the Israelis.
This is being read by some, including Marc Lynch, as a “green light” for an Israeli attack. Like Robert Farley I think the most straightforward reading of what Biden said is rather different, he’s trying to distance the United States from any possible Israeli military action by making it clear that what Israel does or doesn’t do is decided in Israel rather than in Washington.
The main problem with this, I think, is that probably nobody’s going to believe it. Already you see many Americans taking Biden’s statement that the U.S. doesn’t control Israeli policy to “really” mean that the U.S. is encouraging Israel to attack.
But what about Saudi Arabia? Times says they are giving a tacit green light to Israeli strikes on Iran.
The model for this attack is Syria, where the Israelis destroyed a nascent nuclear facility built by North Koreans. Unfortunately, that model may not be a good predictor of success in Iran. The terrain in Iran is much different than in Syria, where the facility stood out like a sore thumb on satellite recon images. The Iranians have reportedly dispersed their nuclear work so that an attack on one or two sites won’t cripple their work. The Israelis would have to have excellent intel in order to succeed — but then again, the Israelis usually have excellent intel, and if they’re working with the Saudis, that makes the odds better.
However, the Iranian regime looks on shaky ground at the moment. An Israeli attack now would almost certainly stop the momentum of the opposition, boosted today by the mullahs in Qum declaring the rigged presidential election illegitimate, and by extension also the regime that rigged it. A military strike would unite Iranians against the world and could set back the effort at real reform by 30 years, unless the Israelis attempted to decapitate the Guardian Council and Ali Khamenei.
If the Times has this right, the Israelis may want to bide their time to see what transpires next in Iran. They can’t wait forever, but the overthrow of the mullahs would be more likely to accomplish what Israel wants than an air strike.
While the Saudis may be looking around for Plan B, Obama is plainly stuck on Plan A. There is no hint of the most “realistic” policy available being to tip the balance away from the current regime, deny legitimacy and recognition to the current crew, round up international organizations, and impose an array of sanctions to aid in those efforts. You know, just like the Obama team is trying out in Honduras (where the military and legislature were merely attempting to preserve their own constitution).
The president is willing to recognize no set of facts or moral considerations that will dissuade him from pursuing “engagement” with Iran. This is the triumph of blind ideology over reason, facts, history, and common sense.
July 6, 2009...12:19 pm
Joe Biden, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran
What did Joe Biden say about Israel and Iran?
Marc Lynch:
Robert Farley:
Matthew Yglesias:
But what about Saudi Arabia? Times says they are giving a tacit green light to Israeli strikes on Iran.
John Hinderaker has both linked together at Powerline.
Jeffrey Goldberg
Ed Morrissey:
Jennifer Rubin in Commentary:
UPDATE: Jennifer Rubin
David Hazony
Rubin again
UPDATE #2: Kevin Drum
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Filed under Middle East, Political Figures
Tags: Commentary, David Hazony, Ed Morrissey, Foreign Policy, Iran, Israel, Jeffrey Goldberg, Jennifer Rubin, John Hinderaker, Kevin Drum, Marc Lynch, Matthew Yglesias, Middle East, Political Figures, Powerline, Robert Farley, Saudi Arabia, The Times