Over at Sully’s place, two posts of live tweets, here and here, on the Rafsanjani speech.
Joe Klein in Swampland:
So what does this mean? As an Iranian friend of mine predicted yesterday, this means that Rafsanjani intends to lead an Iranian opposition front to the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad government. Given his stature–he is the one opposition leader who is part of the regular Friday Prayer rotation–this seems a clear indication that Iran remains something less than a totalitarian state, controlled by the Revolutionary Guards. The question now is: how broad an opposition front? Will it include people like Mohsen Rezaie and Ali Larijani, conservatives who are at odds with Ahmadinejad, as well as the Green Revolutionaries? Will it include conservative newspapers like Resalat, which have been critical of Ahmadinejad? Will it be able to moderate the ruling junta in any way?
There’s no way to know…but it is good to know that the struggle in Iran continues, and may now have an organizing force.
Rafsanjani had maintained a careful silence until now, perhaps waiting to see which way the wind blew. Even now, Rafsanjani spoke carefully enough to perhaps remain in Khamenei’s good graces, couching his criticism in conditionals rather than explicit accusations. However, no one can doubt that Rafsanjani’s words will breathe new life into the protest movement. It gives the opposition their highest ranking cleric so far, clearly siding with the people who believe the election was rigged to appoint Ahmadinejad to a second term.
The question will be whether the protest movement stops at Ahmadinejad now. Mirhossein Mousavi attended Rafsanjani’s remarks, but seems to have become almost a bit player in the movement. Even before Rafsanjani spoke, the opposition returned to the streets, chanting “Death to the dictator” and “coup government,” which indicates how far the anger has gone
Mostaghim reports from Tehran that the crowds seemed older and grayer than in past demonstrations, suggesting the depth of dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad in the general public– this is not just a youth movement as some have attempted to depict it.
In the end, the security forces deployed motorcycles, beatings and tear gas in an attempt to break up the multiple demonstrations. Crowds fought back, including by setting trash fires to burn up the tear gas and by waving burning cigarettes in front of each others’ faces.
In the course of the crackdown it is said that the Basij or popular rightwing militia beat up opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi.
Blake Hounshell in Foreign Policy (from before the speech):
One interpretation of the former president’s motives, a version of which Geneive Abdo explains here, is that this is all about Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. He’s only out for No. 1, and is using the reformers to get a leg up on Khamenei. Or, he’s simply in a fight for survival — Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has all but accused him of gross corruption and is clearly out to get him and his family — and is hedging his bets. Either way, it’s clear he’s no reformist himself.
But this could be a defining moment for Rafsanjani. As Carnegie Endowment analyst Karim Sadjadpour puts it, “This Friday is probably the most important speech of his career. He’s nearly 75 years old, and his legacy has always been important to him. If he complains about personal slights and electoral improprieties but submits to the will of the Leader ‘for the sake of the ‘glorious revolution’, history will remember him not only as a crook but also a coward. I’ve learned to have low expectations of the courage and integrity of Iranian officials, and hope that I’ll be pleasantly surprised.”
Abe Greenwald in Commentary:
Obama need not do anything that rises to the level of “meddling” in order to put the U.S. squarely on the side of Iran’s democrats. A new statement condemning the crackdown and calling for a second election would go a long way. The regime has lost the ability to deceive the people of Iran. This would be the very worst time to reach a “realist” arrangement with Tehran. A little outrage is in order once again.
UPDATE: Reza Aslan in Daily Beast
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July 19, 2009 at 8:32 pm
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