Tag Archives: Gallup

You May Be A Gen-Xer If You Get Why This Art Accompanies This Post

Frank Newport at Gallup:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

Chris Good at The Atlantic:

Gallup’s tracking goes back to 1950; the largest lead was 32 percentage points in favor of Democrats in July 1974, before Richard Nixon resigned over Watergate.

Are the new numbers evidence of a galvanized GOP base in already-conservative districts or a general Republicanizing of the country? Tough to know, but probably some (or a lot) of both

Allah Pundit:

To put this in perspective, until this month, the biggest lead the GOP had held in the history of Gallup’s polling was … five points. Why the eeyorism, then? Well, (a) Rasmussen has new generic ballot numbers out today too and the GOP’s actually lost a few points since last week, driving them down to their smallest lead since mid-July. Not sure how to square that with Gallup, especially since Ras polls likely voters and Gallup polls registered voters. The enthusiasm gap should mean a bigger spread among the former than the latter (and until today, it has), and if Gallup’s numbers are merely a reaction to last week’s dismal economic news, it’s surpassingly strange that the same reaction isn’t showing up in Rasmussen. Also, (b) Gallup’s generic-ballot polling has already produced one freaky outlier this summer. Granted, today’s numbers are more credible because they’re part of a trend, but read this Jay Cost piece about how bouncy Gallup’s numbers have historically been at times. Hmmmm.

Neil Stevens at Redstate:

This Gallup result is so large, I had to see what it shows in the Swingometer. As always, I boil it down to two party results. In 2008 we had a 56 D – 44 R split, and this Gallup simplifies to a 45 D – 55 R split. So the swing is from a D+12 to an R+10, or a 22 point swing.

So right now, that means Gallup of all polls, using Registered Voters, is projecting in the Swingometer a 60 seat Republican gain for a 238 R-197 D majority. The last time an election took the Democrats that low was the election of 1946, saith Wikipedia. Election night in 2004 took them to 202 for the second lowest.

Rasmussen today, by contrast, shows only a 20 point swing, a 57 seat Republican gain, and a 235 R – 200 D majority, still lower than an election since Truman has taken the House Democrats. If I then take the mean of these two and double weight the Rasmussen Likely Voter poll, I get R+58, the new projection.

Paul Mirengoff at Powerline:

The “enthusiasm gap” is even more pronounced. Gallup finds that Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be “very” enthusiastic about voting come November, the largest such advantage of the year.

I’m obliged to add that anything can happen during the next two months. But more than any old thing will be required if the Democrats are to avoid a crushing defeat at the end of those two months.

John McCormack at The Weekly Standard

Doug Mataconis:

The biggest problem for the Democrats is that there seem to be very few things that can happen between now and Election Day that can reverse the Republican momentum. The latest round of economic reports seem to establish fairly clearly that the economy is likely to remain flat or depressed during that time period and I doubt we’ll be getting any good news out of the jobs report that will be released this coming Friday, and it is primarily the economy that is driving voter anger at this point in time. Outside of some massive scandal that hurts Republicans or an international crisis that causes the public to rally around the President, both of which are unlikely, the pattern we’re in now is likely to be the one we’re in on Election Day. That’s bad news if you’re a Democrat.

UPDATE: Nate Silver at NYT

Noam Scheiber at TNR

Jim Antle at The American Spectator

Hugh Hewitt

1 Comment

Filed under Politics

You Know That We Are Living In A Polarized World, And He Is A Polarized President

Jeffrey Jones at Gallup:

The 65 percentage-point gap between Democrats’ (88%) and Republicans’ (23%) average job approval ratings for Barack Obama is easily the largest for any president in his first year in office, greatly exceeding the prior high of 52 points for Bill Clinton.

Average Difference Between Republicans' and Democrats' Job Approval Ratings of Presidents During First Year in Office

Overall, Obama averaged 57% job approval among all Americans from his inauguration to the end of his first full year on Jan. 19. He came into office seeking to unite the country, and his initial approval ratings ranked among the best for post-World War II presidents, including an average of 41% approval from Republicans in his first week in office. But he quickly lost most of his Republican support, with his approval rating among Republicans dropping below 30% in mid-February and below 20% in August. Throughout the year, his approval rating among Democrats exceeded 80%, and it showed little decline even as his overall approval rating fell from the mid-60s to roughly 50%.

Joe Gandelman at Moderate Voice:

Both sides will argue whether this is due to Obama’s actions or due to the fact that before he even set his fanny in the Oval Office partisans such as Rush Limbuagh, Sean Hannity and some GOPers in Congress were indicating that they were going to steadfastly oppose Obama — and demonization started before he even took his oath of office. Why he has this rating is less relevant than the existing perception which Obama must change.

James Joyner:

We’ll see if Obama ultimately tops Bush — who seemed untoppable a year ago.  But it sure seems likely.    It’s the nature of a permanent campaign and, as Jones observes, a radically different information climate:

The way Americans view presidents has clearly changed in recent decades, perhaps owing to the growth in variety, sources, and even politicization of news on cable television and the Internet, and the continuing popularity of politically oriented talk radio. The outcome is that Americans evaluate their presidents and other political leaders through increasingly thick partisan lenses.

Not only is there more information out there competing for eyeballs — with hype, fear, and anger as the chief selling points — but no one has to ever hear the opinions of people who disagree with them unless they really want to.  If you’re getting all your news from Fox or MSNBC, you’re simply going to have a different outlook on the world than was the case when everyone was watching one of three national anchormen presenting 22 minutes of news each night in a Midwestern accent.

Matthew Yglesias:

That media-centric causal explanation doesn’t strike me as even remotely plausible. The total audience for cable news is extremely small in the scheme of things. And you could say the same for political blogs.

A much more plausible theory is that it used to be the case that white southerners nearly universally identified as Democrats even while holding diverse views on many specific issues. This created a reservoir of Democrats who might disapprove of Democratic presidents or approve of Republican presidents. In a related manner, at the time many northeastern Republicans had fairly progressive views on a variety of issues and most northern Republicans were at least somewhat progressive on civil rights. But that old party system dissolved in the seventies and eighties, leaving Bill Clinton and George W Bush and now Barack Obama to govern in a world where the parties are ideologically coherent and partisans are therefore very unlikely to approve of an opposite-party president.

Eric Kleefeld at TPM


Leave a comment

Filed under Political Figures

The Tilt-A-Whirl Whirls Towards The Right


Lydia Saad at Gallup:

Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are “conservative” has increased by one point each.

As is typical in recent years, Republicans are far more unified in their political outlook than are either independents or Democrats. While 72% of Republicans in 2009 call their views conservative, independents are closely split between the moderate and conservative labels (43% and 35%, respectively). Democrats are about evenly divided between moderates (39%) and liberals (37%).

Jennifer Rubin at Commentary:

This raises a few serious issues for the White House and the Congress. First, as the Democratic-controlled government is racing to the Left, the country is moving Right. The latter may well be a backlash against the very policies pushed by the Obama team, and against those policies’ consequences (e.g., more debt, bigger government). And the decline in the approval rating of both the president and the Congress may well reflect the public’s aversion to their liberal agenda. Second, lawmakers can read the polls too, and at some point those who have been buffaloed into voting for liberal measures (e.g., cap-and-trade) for the sake of party unity will resist further entreaties to cast votes at odds with the voters’ tilt. Third, the notion that the country’s political center was shifted and reset in 2008 apparently was just wishful thinking. Remember that Obama ran a campaign drenched in moderate rhetoric and that he rejected key positions that he has now embraced (e.g., taxes on those making less than $250,000). This suggests he was able to win precisely because voters didn’t know what was really in store for them.

Erick Erickson at Redstate:

I hope the RNC, GOP, NRSC, NRCC, etc. are paying attention to this.

As I have noted repeatedly, data from the 2008 exit polling showed that more people considered themselves “conservative” than “liberal.” This new Gallup poll is in accord with that.

This goes straight to NY-23, where both the DCCC and NRCC are attacking Doug Hoffman, the conservative candidate. Apparently, unlike the NRCC, the DCCC sees a path to victory for Doug Hoffman.

When the GOP paints a clearly distinct picture of ideas and issues from the Democrats, they win. Voters do not want to vote for Democrat-lite when they get have the real thing. Instead, the GOP should present and alternative, better vision of moving this country forward.

Jillian Bandes at Townhall

James Antle at AmSpec:

The latest Gallup poll shows more Americans identify as “conservative” (40 percent) rather than “moderate” (36 percent) or “liberal.” While these self-descriptions shouldn’t be conflated with support for the Republican Party — there are plenty of self-described conservatives in the Democratic Party, for instance — the Obama administration may be forcing a modest rightward trend.

Gallup notes that between 2005 and 2008, moderates and conservatives were tied as the “most prevalent group” ideologically. That coincides with the time period when George W. Bush’s popularity went into the basement and stayed there for the rest of his presidency. During this period, some people who might have previously embraced the conservative label. Since June 2009, conservatives have narrowly outnumbered moderates again and the latest poll shows a 6-point increase in the number of independents describing themselves as conservatives.

Bruce Drake at Politics Daily

Greg Sargent:

Here’s why this is interesting: It bucks a trend that appeared to be underway earlier this year. In the wake of Obama’s electoral success among independents, some analysts noted that independents appeared increasingly aligned with the political views of Dems and increasingly well-disposed towards Obama’s unabashed embrace of ambitious, activist government.

This, among other factors, persuaded many Dems that Obama was on the verge of transforming the electorate in a way that would further marginalize Republicans. But if indys are swinging conservative again, that’s one data point suggesting those predictions were overly optimistic.

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan

1 Comment

Filed under Politics