Numbers For The “Sage Of Wasilla”

Chris Cillizza and Jon Cohen at WaPo:

Sarah Palin’s ratings within the Republican Party are slumping, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, a potentially troubling sign for the former Alaska governor as she weighs whether to enter the 2012 presidential race.

For the first time in Post-ABC News polling, fewer than six in 10 Republicans and GOP-leaning independents see Palin in a favorable light, down from a stratospheric 88 percent in the days after the 2008 Republican National Convention and 70 percent as recently as October.

In one sense, the poll still finds Palin near the top of a list of eight potential contenders for the GOP nomination. The former vice presidential candidate scores a 58 percent favorable rating, close to the 61 percent for former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and 60 percent for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and better than the 55 percent that onetime House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) received.

But Palin’s unfavorable numbers are significantly higher than they are for any of these possible competitors. Fully 37 percent of all Republicans and GOP-leaning independents now hold a negative view of her, a new high.

In another first, fewer than 50 percent of Republican-leaning independents — 47 percent — hold favorable views of Palin.

Andrew Sullivan:

But look behind the headlines and you find something more interesting:

“Strong” favorability matters in primaries, where motivation to turn out is an important factor. Among strong Tea Party supporters, strongly favorable views of Huckabee and Palin are highest, at 45 and 42 percent, respectively; strongly favorable views of Gingrich and Romney drop off in this group to 35 and 31 percent, respectively.

There’s a similar pattern in a related group, leaned Republicans who say they are “very” conservative. Palin and Huckabee (at 45 and 44 percent) again attract much higher strongly favorable ratings among strong conservatives than do Gingrich and Romney (30 and 28 percent).

In primaries, enthusiasm matters. And if Huckabee doesn’t run …

Jonathan Bernstein:

In response to the latest polling on the Sage of Wasilla, which show her continuing to lose support even among Republicans, I went looking through my old posts on her to see if I could claim a little told-you-so — if I had clearly said that if she continued to snub party leaders they would eventually turn against her, and if that happened (as it has) then the rank-and-file, or at least many of them, would follow, regardless of how popular she was with them back then. Yup! Hey, I’m wrong sometimes (and I’ll try to ‘fess up when I am), but I think I nailed this one.

I bring that up because I still don’t think it’s too late for Sarah Palin to turn it around, at least in large part, if she suddenly decided to play by the rules that normal candidates follow. Policy expertise can be bought and faked; party leaders, whether they’re national columnists, interest group leaders, or locals in Iowa and New Hampshire, can be schmoozed. It increasingly appears that either she is constitutionally incapable of doing those things or just has no interest in it, and even if she does them there’s no guarantee she would be nominated…but it is clear now, as it has been from the start, that the normal rules of politics apply to her regardless of what she or anyone else thinks.

One other thing that I did come across from last summer which still seems relevant now is the question of whether Republicans will campaign with Sarah Palin. I said then that given how few people, especially swing voters, are Palin fans — but also how many Republicans remain strong supporters — that it would make sense for Democrats to press their GOP opponents over whether they would campaign with her or not. Of course, skilled politicians know how to duck questions for which there are no good answers, but it can’t hurt to ask those questions.

Jamelle Bouie at Tapped:

The obvious question is why? Chris Cillizza suggests Palin’s tendency to polarize, but I’m skeptical. For starters, she continues to score a high favorability rating among Republicans: 58 percent, compared to 60 percent for Mitt Romney and 55 percent for Newt Gingrich. Moreover, her views are within the mainstream of the GOP; on every issue, Sarah Palin is an orthodox Republican.

As far as I can tell, Palin’s fall from grace has less to do with ideology or popularity and more to do with her obvious disdain for Republican elites. Since 2008, she has been on a one-pol crusade against the activists and donors who represent important interests and elites within the GOP coalition. This was tolerable last year, when she was something of an electoral asset, but with the upcoming presidential election — and her stark unpopularity among everyone else — it’s less than acceptable. Conservative elites are gradually distancing themselves from Palin, and in all likelihood, this has trickled down to the grassroots.

This isn’t to say that Palin has lost her influence among conservatives — she continues to enjoy a devoted following — but it does put a damper on her presidential ambitions, if she ever had them (I’m doubtful).

Steve Benen:

It may be counterintuitive, but I actually think this is good news for Palin. She’s done nothing but bring shame and embarrassment to herself on a nearly daily basis for years, and she’s likely dropped about as far as she can with the GOP. And at this point, she still enjoys favorable ratings from a clear majority of Republican voters.

James Joyner:

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: By presidential candidate standards, Sarah Palin is an ignoramus. That is, she’s “utterly lacking in knowledge or training about matters of public policy, law, or international affairs” one expects of someone contending for the presidency. That was my assessment more than two years ago and it has only been buttressed with the passage of time.

But the fact that she’s not particularly studious or intellectually curious doesn’t mean she’s unintelligent. I’m guessing she’s within swinging distance in terms of raw IQ to George W. Bush or, certainly, Mike Huckabee. And she’s enormously charming and good in front of a friendly crowd.

Bush the Younger was thought by many to be a lightweight at this point in the 2000 presidential cycle. Granted, he’d finished his term as Texas governor and was into his second by this time in 1999. And he had his MBA from Harvard, so people presumed he had at least passing knowledge with business and economic affairs. But, aside from perhaps Mexico, there was little evidence that Bush had any particular interest in foreign policy.

But Bush surrounded himself with smart people and studied. Recall the great “Saturday Night Live” sketch about the second debate with Al Gore, in which he gratuitously cited the names of various obscure world leaders in an attempt to shake off a weak performance in the first debate. It worked.

When this debate last mattered, during the 2008 general election campaign, Republicans who disagreed with me on Palin rightly pointed out that her resume favorably compared with then-candidate Barack Obama’s. Even Democrats who ultimately supported Obama, like our own Dave Schuler, were concerned about his lack of experience. But, by the time the debates rolled around, Obama had mastered the playbooks and could intelligently debate matters of domestic and foreign policymaking. Yes, there were some early stumbles. But few thought he was stupid or ill informed by the time it mattered.

Palin has the inherent talent to apply herself and win over skeptical Republicans and centrists. Many people really want to like her. But Bernstein is right: There’s no evidence thus far that she’s willing to do what it takes.

How Low Will He Go? How Low Will He Go?

Dan Balz and Jon Cohen at WaPo:

Public confidence in President Obama has hit a new low, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Four months before midterm elections that will define the second half of his term, nearly six in 10 voters say they lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country, and a clear majority once again disapproves of how he is dealing with the economy.

Regard for Obama is still higher than it is for members of Congress, but the gap has narrowed. About seven in 10 registered voters say they lack confidence in Democratic lawmakers and a similar proportion say so of Republican lawmakers.

Overall, more than a third of voters polled — 36 percent — say they have no confidence or only some confidence in the president, congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans. Among independents, this disillusionment is higher still. About two-thirds of all voters say they are dissatisfied with or angry about the way the federal government is working.

CBS News:

Economists have declared the economic recession over largely over, but most Americans don’t share their optimism, and they are increasingly blaming President Obama for their money woes.

Mr. Obama’s approval rating on the economy has tumbled five percentage points from last month, according to a new CBS News poll, with just 40 percent of those polled expressing full confidence in his actions.

More than half of those questioned (54 percent) said they disapproved of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy. Last month, 45 percent approved. The drop in approval has been seen mostly among independents, just 35 percent of whom now say they approve.

Jennifer Rubin at Commentary:

In short, Obama has lost the confidence of the voters on the issues that matter most. (”Just 43 percent of all Americans now say they approve of the job Obama is doing on the economy, while 54 percent disapprove.”) They will take it out on those with a “D” next to their names in November.

DiA at The Economist:

Things look bad for the Democrats, but I’m not sure I agree with Jennifer Rubin’s oversimplified assessment that the poll “has nothing but bad, very bad, news for Obama.” Buried deep in the Post‘s report is the surprising news that Mr Obama’s overall job-approval rating stands at 50%. Granted, “those who strongly disapprove now significantly outnumber those who strongly approve”, according to the paper. But with the unemployment rate at 9.5%, I’d expect much worse. Mr Obama’s rating puts him in a similar position to Bill Clinton in 1994, and ahead of where Ronald Reagan was in 1982, when he too struggled with a severe recession. Mr Clinton’s Democrats lost both the House and the Senate, and Mr Reagan’s Republicans lost a bunch of seats in the House, but both went on to easily win re-election two years later. So, bad news for the president’s party, but not all bad for the president himself. The worse news for Mr Obama is that voters seem to be prioritising deficit reduction over further stimulus spending, which will make it hard for the president to do anything about that sticky unemployment rate.

John McCormack at The Weekly Standard:

One bright spot for President Obama in an otherwise dreary Washington Post/ABC News poll:

On the issues tested in the poll, Obama’s worst ratings come on his handling of the federal budget deficit, where 56 percent disapprove and 40 percent approve. He scores somewhat better on health-care reform (45 percent approve) and regulation of the financial industry (44 percent). His best marks come on his duties as commander in chief, with 55 percent approving.

Voters also disapproved of Obama’s job performance on the one other issue tested by the Post: 54 percent disapprove and 43 percent approve of how he’s handling the economy.

So Obama’s head was above water on just one of the five issues tested by the Post: his performance as commander in chief. Yet his overall approval rating is at 50 percent, which suggests that perhaps the president’s determination to prosecute the war in Afghanistan is propping up his overall job performance rating.

Jonathan Chait at TNR:

At the same time, the poll also shows that the public clearly favors the Democrats over the Republicans. The Post story about the poll leads with the fact that only 43% of the public has confidence in President Obama to make the right decisions for the country’s future. That’s low. But only 26% have confidence in Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions, which is far lower than Obama, and even lower than Congressional Democrats, in whom 32% have confidence. That’s not an anomaly. Asked which party will do a better job of handling the economy, 42% say the Democrats and 34% say the GOP.

So, in sum, there’s a crucial swing vote bloc that prefers the policies of the Democrats over the Republicans but plans to vote for the Republicans anyway.

Why would anybody do that? Delving into the psychology of voters is tricky. But clearly, it vindicates the sense that voters hold the governing party responsible for the state of the country, which mainly means the state of the economy. Voters in the middle are not going to compare the policies of the two parties. They’re just going to vote yay or nay on how things appear to be going. That makes more sense when you consider things from the perspective of voters who don’t follow politics very closely.

Tom Maguire:

A new WaPo/ABC News poll shows Obama is still taking on water as he continues his Titantic fail.  Two bright spots for Dems – although Dems are moving down, Republicans are not really moving up.  And the poll didn’t ask about immigration, thereby sparing Obama more mortification:

Confidence in Obama reaches new low, Washington Post-ABC News poll finds

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, July 13, 2010; A01

Public confidence in President Obama has hit a new low, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Four months before midterm elections that will define the second half of his term, nearly six in 10 voters say they lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country, and a clear majority once again disapproves of how he is dealing with the economy.

As a aside, I am sort of missing the fawning coverage of Obama’s oh-so-sweet date night in Manhattan with Michelle.  I wonder if we will be seeing any more date nights like that before the election

Derek Thompson at The Atlantic:

Finally, this analysis requires a big asterisk. Democrats are almost certainly doomed to fall by the dozens in the House this November. It’s not the candidates, it’s the conditions: plus-nine percent unemployment; slow business investment; continuing weakness in the housing sector. (As the graphs below demonstrate, income growth is a particularly accurate indicator of losses.)

History will debate and determine whether the Obama/Bernanke regime wisely handled the recession. In the nearer term, the voters will make that judgment themselves, and there isn’t much evidence from July 2010 to suggest that the recovery, or the Democrats’ fortunes, are ready to pick up any time soon.

The Summer Is Over And There Are Polls In October

Heather Horn at The Atlantic already has a round-up on this. Dan Balz and Jon Cohen in WaPo:

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that support for a government-run health-care plan to compete with private insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and wins clear majority support from the public.

Americans remain sharply divided about the overall packages moving closer to votes in Congress and President Obama’s leadership on the issue, reflecting the partisan battle that has raged for months over the administration’s top legislative priority. But sizable majorities back two key and controversial provisions: both the so-called public option and a new mandate that would require all Americans to carry health insurance.

Independents and senior citizens, two groups crucial to the debate, have warmed to the idea of a public option, and are particularly supportive if it would be administered by the states and limited to those without access to affordable private coverage.

Matthew Yglesias:

The question the Post asked about making the public option “available only to people who did not have a choice of affordable private insurance” seems very ill-considered. On the one hand, in all the versions of health reform on the table the public option is limited to people who’d be participating in the health insurance exchange—which is to say people not eligible for Medicare or for employer-provided insurance. Then on the other hand, in all the versions of health reform on the table people participating in the exchange are eligible for federal subsidies to ensure the affordability of health insurance. So on one construction of making the public option “available only to people who did not have a choice of affordable private insurance” we’re not talking about modifying the standard public option plan at all. But on another construction of the phrase we’re talking about creating a public option that nobody would be eligible for.

Derek Thompson at The Atlantic:

Those “summertime lows” were sixty-two percent support in June, 52 percent support in August, and 55 percent in September. Those would be summertime lows if they were measuring, say, Washington, DC, temperature in Fahrenheit, but as support for a “controversial” and revolutionary health insurance reform, I’d call it a lasting majority.

Jon Walker at Firedoglake:

What is very important is that the same poll found 57 percent of Americans support a public option. Only a very tiny minority of Americans (roughly 6%) support the public option but think Democrats should give it up to win the support of a few Republican senators like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. The results on this question are very similar to previous poll by Research 2000.

The message is clear. Outside the beltway, regular American don’t put much value on bills getting some “bipartisan” votes. What the majority of Americans want is real actions which can improve their lives. . . like the public option. People care about results, not process.

Jules Crittenden:

Back to the poll results, Americans are a fickle bunch. Maybe they like the public option better because Obama agreed to drop it. Anyway, given the article’s general litany of bad polling news for Obama and the Dem Cong, the lede probably should be a little less chipper.

Maybe something like, “Despite an ironic, slight uptick in popularity for a key signature principle the president has abandoned and large majorities think is a financial boondoggle, his effort continues to bomb with voters and flounder in Congress.” With a retro Bush-era headline that says “Quagmire!”

Ed Morrissey on another poll:

After the CBO gave the Baucus summary a preliminary score of being deficit-neutral, the Obama administration hoped for a reversal in widespread opposition to the ObamaCare overhaul.  Rasmussen’s latest poll of likely voters shows the opposite has happened.  Opposition has firmed up at 54%, while support has dropped four points over the last two weeks