Tag Archives: Neil Stevens

You May Be A Gen-Xer If You Get Why This Art Accompanies This Post

Frank Newport at Gallup:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

Chris Good at The Atlantic:

Gallup’s tracking goes back to 1950; the largest lead was 32 percentage points in favor of Democrats in July 1974, before Richard Nixon resigned over Watergate.

Are the new numbers evidence of a galvanized GOP base in already-conservative districts or a general Republicanizing of the country? Tough to know, but probably some (or a lot) of both

Allah Pundit:

To put this in perspective, until this month, the biggest lead the GOP had held in the history of Gallup’s polling was … five points. Why the eeyorism, then? Well, (a) Rasmussen has new generic ballot numbers out today too and the GOP’s actually lost a few points since last week, driving them down to their smallest lead since mid-July. Not sure how to square that with Gallup, especially since Ras polls likely voters and Gallup polls registered voters. The enthusiasm gap should mean a bigger spread among the former than the latter (and until today, it has), and if Gallup’s numbers are merely a reaction to last week’s dismal economic news, it’s surpassingly strange that the same reaction isn’t showing up in Rasmussen. Also, (b) Gallup’s generic-ballot polling has already produced one freaky outlier this summer. Granted, today’s numbers are more credible because they’re part of a trend, but read this Jay Cost piece about how bouncy Gallup’s numbers have historically been at times. Hmmmm.

Neil Stevens at Redstate:

This Gallup result is so large, I had to see what it shows in the Swingometer. As always, I boil it down to two party results. In 2008 we had a 56 D – 44 R split, and this Gallup simplifies to a 45 D – 55 R split. So the swing is from a D+12 to an R+10, or a 22 point swing.

So right now, that means Gallup of all polls, using Registered Voters, is projecting in the Swingometer a 60 seat Republican gain for a 238 R-197 D majority. The last time an election took the Democrats that low was the election of 1946, saith Wikipedia. Election night in 2004 took them to 202 for the second lowest.

Rasmussen today, by contrast, shows only a 20 point swing, a 57 seat Republican gain, and a 235 R – 200 D majority, still lower than an election since Truman has taken the House Democrats. If I then take the mean of these two and double weight the Rasmussen Likely Voter poll, I get R+58, the new projection.

Paul Mirengoff at Powerline:

The “enthusiasm gap” is even more pronounced. Gallup finds that Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be “very” enthusiastic about voting come November, the largest such advantage of the year.

I’m obliged to add that anything can happen during the next two months. But more than any old thing will be required if the Democrats are to avoid a crushing defeat at the end of those two months.

John McCormack at The Weekly Standard

Doug Mataconis:

The biggest problem for the Democrats is that there seem to be very few things that can happen between now and Election Day that can reverse the Republican momentum. The latest round of economic reports seem to establish fairly clearly that the economy is likely to remain flat or depressed during that time period and I doubt we’ll be getting any good news out of the jobs report that will be released this coming Friday, and it is primarily the economy that is driving voter anger at this point in time. Outside of some massive scandal that hurts Republicans or an international crisis that causes the public to rally around the President, both of which are unlikely, the pattern we’re in now is likely to be the one we’re in on Election Day. That’s bad news if you’re a Democrat.

UPDATE: Nate Silver at NYT

Noam Scheiber at TNR

Jim Antle at The American Spectator

Hugh Hewitt

Advertisements

1 Comment

Filed under Politics

Well He’s Harry Reid And He’s Back From The Dead, Chillin’ At The Beaches Down At Club Med

Laura Myers at Las Vegas Review-Journal:

U.S. Sen. Harry Reid has opened a strong lead over Republican opponent Sharron Angle after pummeling her in a ubiquitous TV and radio ad campaign that portrays the Tea Party favorite as “too extreme,” according to a new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

The Democratic incumbent’s aggressive strategy of attacking Angle’s staunch conservative views from the moment she won the June 8 primary has cost her support among every voter group — from men and women to both political parties and independents — in vote-rich Clark and Washoe counties.

He’s had five perfect weeks,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. “The race has been all about her, and he’s been doing a good job of pounding her.”

Yet Coker said it’s too soon to write off Angle. More than one-quarter of the nonpartisan swing voters who probably will decide the Nov. 2 election haven’t jumped to the still-unpopular Reid but instead are undecided or in the “other” or “none of these candidates” columns, the poll showed.

“I wouldn’t write her obituary just yet,” Coker said, noting it’s a long way to November. “Three and a half months is a lifetime, and at some point she’s going to be able to start fighting back.”

The Mason-Dixon poll showed that if the general election were held now, Reid would win 44 percent to 37 percent for Angle. Ten percent were undecided, 5 percent would choose “none of these candidates,” and the remaining 4 percent would pick another candidate on the ballot.

Jim Geraghty at NRO:

The only silver lining for fans of Angle is that Reid is only at 44 percent, one point over his previous high. That’s still pretty lousy for a well-known incumbent.

Earlier in the week, after I mentioned some Republican grumbling about Angle, a reader wrote in:

We’ve tried for years with Collinses and Hatches and McCains and Snowes and a host of others who fear their fate too much.  Isn’t it time to put it unto the touch?  With Angle, a win’s a win.  With the kind of candidates you’re advocating, a win is still a loss.

This is all moot, but neither Sue Lowden nor Danny Tarkanian is comparable to a Collins or a Snowe, or even a McCain or a Hatch, I would argue. And if Harry Reid wins, it’s a loss for conservatives. Period.

Neil Stevens at Redstate:

In the runup to the Nevada GOP primary, Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review-Journal understated Sharron Angle’s support by 8 points, and cut her 14 point win almost in half to 8.

Now the pair releases their first post-primary poll. Are they gauging Angle’s support accurately this time?

I have to question whether they are. This poll only shows Angle getting 70% of Republicans versus Harry Reid’s 80% of Democrats. That plus Reid’s slim 37-35 (MoE 4) lead among Independents, gives Reid an overall 44-37 advantage in the poll.

The 44 for Reid is slightly higher than his trend in recent months, but is not unreasonable. The 37 for Angle, though, is abnormal. If we look back at the Real Clear Politics trend, Angle has only been below 40 twice: once in a fraudulent Research 2000/Daily Kos poll, and again in an earlier Mason-Dixon/Las Vegas Review-Journal poll.

I certainly don’t blame Democrats for feeling good about this result, but I would caution Republicans not to get too worried until some other pollster shows Angle dipping quite that far.

Philip Klein at The American Spectator

Ed Morrissey:

Reid has had a pretty good month in defining Angle as extreme, and Angle hasn’t helped her own cause much during that period.  She has had to back away from statements about unemployment and to explain statements on Social Security.  When you’re explaining, you’re playing defense, and Reid put her in that position by flooding the airwaves.

However, a couple of bright spots can be found.  First, Angle had a good fundraising quarter and finally has cash in the bank.  Most importantly, even though she bled voters in almost every category, they didn’t go to Reid.  He’s still only getting 44% of the vote, far below the 50% threshold an incumbent needs to be safe in this climate.  For the moment, voters don’t have to pull the lever for Angle, and she has three months to define herself rather than allow Reid to do it for her.  If 56% of the voters don’t want Reid, that shouldn’t be a difficult sell for Angle, but she has to step up her game now and avoid any further mistakes.

Dan Riehl:

Corruptocrat Harry Reid spent big lobbyist money he’s been raising and using to sell out his state for years to take an early lead over Sharron Angle. Meanwhile, Angle’s own fundraising is starting to kick in big. If you had a choice between leading in July, or November, which would you choose?

Reid will try to take a lead, as he has, and hold on to it. He has the corruptocrat cash to take that approach. But this tells us nothing about what will happen when Angle starts to punch back. And punch she must.

As long as her campaign structure is on top of it, I see no real reason for concern here at this point. This is purely indicative of the kind of advantage Reid always had going in. Given his barrage, it’s notable the numbers aren’t worse than this, what with his unopposed ad buys – unopposed for now, not for the fall when it actually counts.

Doug Mataconis:

Sharron Angle isn’t dead, of course. She could still pull off a win, but it’s going to be a lot tougher than it appeared to be in the immediate aftermath of her primary victory. Once again, it appears that Harry Reid has gotten exactly the Republican opponent he’d want in a year like this.

UPDATE: Jon Ralston at the Las Vegas Sun

UPDATE #2: Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo

1 Comment

Filed under Political Figures