Well He’s Harry Reid And He’s Back From The Dead, Chillin’ At The Beaches Down At Club Med

Laura Myers at Las Vegas Review-Journal:

U.S. Sen. Harry Reid has opened a strong lead over Republican opponent Sharron Angle after pummeling her in a ubiquitous TV and radio ad campaign that portrays the Tea Party favorite as “too extreme,” according to a new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

The Democratic incumbent’s aggressive strategy of attacking Angle’s staunch conservative views from the moment she won the June 8 primary has cost her support among every voter group — from men and women to both political parties and independents — in vote-rich Clark and Washoe counties.

He’s had five perfect weeks,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. “The race has been all about her, and he’s been doing a good job of pounding her.”

Yet Coker said it’s too soon to write off Angle. More than one-quarter of the nonpartisan swing voters who probably will decide the Nov. 2 election haven’t jumped to the still-unpopular Reid but instead are undecided or in the “other” or “none of these candidates” columns, the poll showed.

“I wouldn’t write her obituary just yet,” Coker said, noting it’s a long way to November. “Three and a half months is a lifetime, and at some point she’s going to be able to start fighting back.”

The Mason-Dixon poll showed that if the general election were held now, Reid would win 44 percent to 37 percent for Angle. Ten percent were undecided, 5 percent would choose “none of these candidates,” and the remaining 4 percent would pick another candidate on the ballot.

Jim Geraghty at NRO:

The only silver lining for fans of Angle is that Reid is only at 44 percent, one point over his previous high. That’s still pretty lousy for a well-known incumbent.

Earlier in the week, after I mentioned some Republican grumbling about Angle, a reader wrote in:

We’ve tried for years with Collinses and Hatches and McCains and Snowes and a host of others who fear their fate too much.  Isn’t it time to put it unto the touch?  With Angle, a win’s a win.  With the kind of candidates you’re advocating, a win is still a loss.

This is all moot, but neither Sue Lowden nor Danny Tarkanian is comparable to a Collins or a Snowe, or even a McCain or a Hatch, I would argue. And if Harry Reid wins, it’s a loss for conservatives. Period.

Neil Stevens at Redstate:

In the runup to the Nevada GOP primary, Mason-Dixon and the Las Vegas Review-Journal understated Sharron Angle’s support by 8 points, and cut her 14 point win almost in half to 8.

Now the pair releases their first post-primary poll. Are they gauging Angle’s support accurately this time?

I have to question whether they are. This poll only shows Angle getting 70% of Republicans versus Harry Reid’s 80% of Democrats. That plus Reid’s slim 37-35 (MoE 4) lead among Independents, gives Reid an overall 44-37 advantage in the poll.

The 44 for Reid is slightly higher than his trend in recent months, but is not unreasonable. The 37 for Angle, though, is abnormal. If we look back at the Real Clear Politics trend, Angle has only been below 40 twice: once in a fraudulent Research 2000/Daily Kos poll, and again in an earlier Mason-Dixon/Las Vegas Review-Journal poll.

I certainly don’t blame Democrats for feeling good about this result, but I would caution Republicans not to get too worried until some other pollster shows Angle dipping quite that far.

Philip Klein at The American Spectator

Ed Morrissey:

Reid has had a pretty good month in defining Angle as extreme, and Angle hasn’t helped her own cause much during that period.  She has had to back away from statements about unemployment and to explain statements on Social Security.  When you’re explaining, you’re playing defense, and Reid put her in that position by flooding the airwaves.

However, a couple of bright spots can be found.  First, Angle had a good fundraising quarter and finally has cash in the bank.  Most importantly, even though she bled voters in almost every category, they didn’t go to Reid.  He’s still only getting 44% of the vote, far below the 50% threshold an incumbent needs to be safe in this climate.  For the moment, voters don’t have to pull the lever for Angle, and she has three months to define herself rather than allow Reid to do it for her.  If 56% of the voters don’t want Reid, that shouldn’t be a difficult sell for Angle, but she has to step up her game now and avoid any further mistakes.

Dan Riehl:

Corruptocrat Harry Reid spent big lobbyist money he’s been raising and using to sell out his state for years to take an early lead over Sharron Angle. Meanwhile, Angle’s own fundraising is starting to kick in big. If you had a choice between leading in July, or November, which would you choose?

Reid will try to take a lead, as he has, and hold on to it. He has the corruptocrat cash to take that approach. But this tells us nothing about what will happen when Angle starts to punch back. And punch she must.

As long as her campaign structure is on top of it, I see no real reason for concern here at this point. This is purely indicative of the kind of advantage Reid always had going in. Given his barrage, it’s notable the numbers aren’t worse than this, what with his unopposed ad buys – unopposed for now, not for the fall when it actually counts.

Doug Mataconis:

Sharron Angle isn’t dead, of course. She could still pull off a win, but it’s going to be a lot tougher than it appeared to be in the immediate aftermath of her primary victory. Once again, it appears that Harry Reid has gotten exactly the Republican opponent he’d want in a year like this.

UPDATE: Jon Ralston at the Las Vegas Sun

UPDATE #2: Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo

The Ensign Affair

Allah Pundit

Mitigating factors: He was separated from his wife at the time, or so he says, and was reportedly being blackmailed over this, which prompted the disclosure. Exacerbating factors: His mistress was married — her husband’s the accused blackmailer — and Ensign’s been known to tsk-tsk loudly and publicly about his colleagues’ indiscretions. Quoth Andy Levy, “Preaching about the sanctity of marriage while cheating on your wife is the same as a Treasury Secretary not paying his taxes.”

Alex Knapp, with links added by James Joyner

I am beginning to be of the opinion that if we truly wish to preserve the sanctity of marriage, we need to pass a law that mandates that all married politicians shall, upon taking office, be outfitted with a chastity belt to which only their spouse has the key.

Joyner’s links: Nate Carlile at Think Progress has Ensign’s quotes on marriage over the years.

Radley Balko, in full

Sadly, public acceptance of gay marriage has given yet another conservative politician no choice but to cheat on his wife.

Won’t someone please think of the hypocrites?

David Kurtz at TPM

Emily Miller in Politics Daily

Then I realized the worst part of the story is that sex scandals are so commonplace in politics that a sitting senator announcing he cheated on his wife with a co-worker is not very shocking or newsworthy. It seems a sex scandal has to find new, dirty angles (Mark Foley, Gary Condit) to keep our interest.

But the larger moral issue is that extramarital affairs have become more acceptable to Americans. I blame this on Bill Clinton because we had to hear every gross detail of his oral sex with an intern in the Oval Office. The Bill Clinton affair was so over-the-top (but under the desk) and so detailed (blue dress stains) that Americans became forever numb to the sex scandal shocks.

I really don’t know why it seems that most of the politicians caught in sex scandals tend to be Republicans. We think of ourselves the party of family values and our guys are screwing around; that’s embarrassing.

Harry Brighouse

David Weigel in the Washington Independent

Patrick Edaburn in Moderate Voice

To make it clear, I never approve of slimeballs who have affairs, but I think that we need to draw some lines when it comes to how we react. To begin with, I really think that unless you are a constituent that your ability to comment is somewhat limited. But I am a pseudo pundit so I might as well give a few thoughts, and I am pretty close to Nevada.

As I see it unless there is criminal conduct that any calls for resignation are dumb and out of bounds. I probably wouldn’t vote for Ensign for any office but I don’t think he should have to resign.When people called on Clinton to resign I thought they were wrong and I strongly opposed impeachment. His conduct was wrong but not criminal and thus not proper reasons to toss him out.

By contrast I did support calls for Craig and Spitzer to resign because they did engage in criminal activity and that was a reason for them to be forced from office.

And Wonkette:

Right now we’re seeing about… one? two? Two more days of caring about this John Ensign sex affair, tops. First of all, it was with a woman, presumably of age. Did this guy forget what party he’s in? Second, when he had the affair, he was separated from his wife. That’s just a sledgehammer to the comedic possibilities here. Does that even count as “cheating?” Maybe some of you married fools can explain. The only good part of this scandal is that this lady was married to another campaign staffer of his. But without PIX… well maybe we will never write about this scandal again. Back to IRANIAN TWITTER we go…

UPDATE: David Kurtz again

UPDATE #2: More from TPM on new information

Glenn Thrush in Politico:

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) says he confronted Sen. John Ensign about his extramarital affair and urged him to end his relationship with Cynthia Hampton.

But Coburn, through his spokesman, did not address an allegation in the Las Vegas Sun that he encouraged Ensign (R-Nev.) to help the Hamptons pay off their million dollar mortgage.

UPDATE #3: More TPM on the latest developments:

It looks like John Ensign’s sexual dignity — which hasn’t been high lately — has plunged to new depths. His lawyer has just released a remarkable statement saying that Ensign’s parents paid the Hamptons $96,000 after the 51-year-old senator told his Mom and Dad about the affair.

Steve Benen

UPDATE #4: Michelle Malkin

Kevin Drum

Obviously Sarah Palin is now going to have to do something even more bizarre than last week’s lakeside press conference if she wants people to start paying attention to her again.  I wonder what she’ll dream up?

UPDATE #5: Eric Lichtblau and Eric Lipton at NYT on new revelations.

UPDATE #6: Michael Scherer at Swampland at Time

UPDATE #7: Jon Ralston at The Los Vegas Sun